Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida International enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBuffalo at Florida International
Week 2 · Sep 12Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusFlorida International -8.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 5:45 PM EDT
Florida International -8.511-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 5:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Florida InternationalExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida International is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Buffalo faces materially stronger Penn State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Buffalo 20 · Florida International 33
- Pregame OV Line
- Florida International -5.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Florida International -8.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida International by 13
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineFlorida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusFlorida International -10.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Florida International -10.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Buffalo 33.5%Florida International 66.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Florida International -8.5
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