Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida International enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBuffalo at Florida International
Week 2 · Sep 12Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusFlorida International -10.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Florida International -10.52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~5 pts toward Florida InternationalExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida International is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Buffalo faces materially stronger Penn State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 401 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Buffalo 20 · Florida International 33
- Pregame OV Line
- Florida International -5.5
- Final recorded market
- Florida International -10.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida International by 13
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineFlorida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Florida International -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusFlorida International -10.5Based on 2 books
Florida International -10.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Buffalo 33.5%Florida International 66.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Florida International -10.5
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