Robert Morris at Buffalo — Week 4

Week 4 · Sep 26UB Stadium · Amherst, NY

Robert MorrisFCS

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.

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Opening Line

Buffalo -26.5Before any Factor adjustments

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Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus

Buffalo -287-book consensus · observed Sep 26, 3:15 PM EDT

Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -26.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Robert MorrisOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineBuffalo -25Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward BuffaloExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -26.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Robert MorrisOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Buffalo -25Opening Market ConsensusBuffalo -28.5Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward BuffaloSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Buffalo -25Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBuffalo -28Unexplained gap~3 pts toward BuffaloExplore similar gaps Robert Morris has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Robert Morris

Robert Morris has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Robert Morris

Robert Morris has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Robert Morris; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

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Completed gameWhat happened?Robert Morris 28 · Buffalo 31

Pregame OV Line: Buffalo -26.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus: Buffalo -28
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line: Buffalo -25
Actual margin: Buffalo by 3

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability

Robert Morris 4.3%Buffalo 95.7%

Robert Morris has extra rest

Robert Morris has extra rest

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