Close-win regression Developing estimate
Buffalo enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBowling Green at Buffalo
Week 8 · Oct 24UB Stadium · Amherst, NY
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Buffalo -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Buffalo -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusBuffalo -311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Buffalo -311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Bowling GreenExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate
Buffalo has covered at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Bowling Green lost the most recent meeting with Buffalo.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Bowling Green lost the most recent meeting with Buffalo by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Bowling Green is the underdog in a matchup played at least 7 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Bowling Green faces materially stronger Western Michigan in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Bowling Green 24 · Buffalo 31
- Pregame OV Line
- Buffalo -5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Buffalo -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Buffalo by 7
Observed 1h 17m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineBuffalo -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Buffalo -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusBuffalo -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Buffalo -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Bowling Green 35.4%Buffalo 64.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Buffalo -3
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