UAlbany at Buffalo

Week 1 · Sep 3UB Stadium · Amherst, NY
UAlbanyFCS
@
Buffalo5–3-15.2 vs. avg · #120

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBuffalo -18.58-book consensus · observed Sep 3, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineBuffalo -27Unexplained Gap~8.5 pts toward UAlbanyExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Buffalo -26Opening Market ConsensusBuffalo -24.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward UAlbanySince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Buffalo -27Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusBuffalo -18.5Unexplained gap~8.5 pts toward UAlbanyExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward BuffaloAt open ~1.5 pts toward BuffaloIn-week ~1 pt toward Buffalo

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward BuffaloAt open ~1.5 pts toward BuffaloIn-week ~1 pt toward Buffalo
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Buffalo's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 55%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Buffalo (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?UAlbany 17 · Buffalo 21
Pregame OV Line
Buffalo -24.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Buffalo -18.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Buffalo -27
Actual margin
Buffalo by 4

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UAlbany 3.6%Buffalo 96.4%

Compare Teams

UAlbanyVSBuffalo

Model View

Overall Rating—-15.2 · #120
Offense Rating—-10.2
Defense Rating—-5.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.08
Offense Success Rate—39.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—130th