UAlbany at Buffalo

Week 1 · Sep 3UB Stadium · Amherst, NY
UAlbanyFCS
@
Buffalo1–1-18.0 vs. avg · #127

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusBuffalo -24.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineBuffalo -27Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward UAlbanyExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineBuffalo -24.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Buffalo -26Opening Market ConsensusBuffalo -24.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward UAlbanySince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward BuffaloOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Buffalo -27Current Market ConsensusBuffalo -24.5Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward UAlbanyExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward BuffaloAt open ~1.5 pts toward BuffaloIn-week ~1 pt toward Buffalo

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward BuffaloAt open ~1.5 pts toward BuffaloIn-week ~1 pt toward Buffalo
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Buffalo's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 55%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Buffalo (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?UAlbany 17 · Buffalo 21
Pregame OV Line
Buffalo -24.5
Final recorded market
Buffalo -24.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Buffalo -27
Actual margin
Buffalo by 4

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
UAlbany 3.6%Buffalo 96.4%

Compare Teams

UAlbanyVSBuffalo

Model View

Overall Rating—-18.0 · #127
Offense Rating—-11.6
Defense Rating—-6.4

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.08
Offense Success Rate—39.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.11
Defense Success Rate Allowed—38.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.9
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—129th