Missouri State at Florida International

Week 10 · Nov 7Pitbull Stadium · Miami, FL

Matchup View

Opening LineFlorida International -7Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusFlorida International -4.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineFlorida International -7Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Missouri StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineFlorida International -6Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineFlorida International -7Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Missouri StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Florida International -6Opening Market ConsensusFlorida International -4.5Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward Missouri StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Florida International -6Current Market ConsensusFlorida International -4.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward Missouri StateExplore similar gaps Missouri State has extra rest~1 pt toward Missouri State

Missouri State has extra rest

~1 pt toward Missouri State

Missouri State has 3.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.0 points toward Missouri State; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after losing its previous lined game by 39 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Florida International enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Florida International is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Florida International lost the most recent meeting with Missouri State.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Missouri State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Missouri State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
Missouri State 30.1%Florida International 69.9%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Nov 7.

Compare Teams

Missouri StateVSFlorida International

Model View

Overall Rating-18.0 · #125-13.8 · #116
Offense Rating-8.4-7.1
Defense Rating-9.5-6.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.16
Offense Success Rate39.3%40.7%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.6%41.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total3.96.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank103rd133rd