High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida International at South Florida
Week 1 · Sep 5Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSouth Florida -14.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDT
South Florida -14.510-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 6:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Season Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Brian Hartline begins his first South Florida season; Florida International returns Willie Simmons. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Florida International 9 · South Florida 19
- Pregame OV Line
- South Florida -14.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- South Florida -14.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- South Florida by 10
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Florida -12.52-book consensus · CFBD fallback
South Florida -12.52-book consensus · CFBD fallbackWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Florida International 14.9%South Florida 85.1%
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Market consensus · South Florida -14.5
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