High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida International at South Florida
Week 1 · Sep 5Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusSouth Florida -13.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
South Florida -13.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward Florida InternationalExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Season Opener with a New Head Coach No separate adjustment
Brian Hartline begins his first South Florida season; Florida International returns Willie Simmons. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Florida International 9 · South Florida 19
- Pregame OV Line
- South Florida -14.5
- Final recorded market
- South Florida -13.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- South Florida by 10
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Florida -12.5Based on 2 books
South Florida -12.5Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Florida International 14.9%South Florida 85.1%
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Market consensus · South Florida -13.5
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