Matchup View
Florida -25Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Florida -26.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26Comparable games put Florida's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 40%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.5 points toward Florida Atlantic (average-estimate range 0.9–2.6), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
See the full studyThese conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Florida is favored by 26.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida Atlantic is a 26.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Florida.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFlorida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Florida by at least 14 points.
Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyJon Sumrall begins his first Florida season; Florida Atlantic returns Zach Kittley. Across 38 comparable games, markets averaged 0.86 points toward the returning coach at the final recorded line in the full sample. However, the 24 games with provider-level opening data centered near zero at opening, at the final recorded line, and in later movement. We identify the condition for transparency but apply no Factor points.
Studied in 38 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyThis preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Florida -25Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Florida -25.5Based on 2 booksComparable games put Florida's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 40%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.5 points toward Florida Atlantic (average-estimate range 0.9–2.6), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.
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Open until scheduled kickoffStraight-up winner
Market consensus · Florida -26.5
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