Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNavy at Florida Atlantic
Week 2 · Sep 12FAU Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNavy -411-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 7:15 PM EDT
Navy -411-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 7:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after losing its previous lined game by 45 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Florida Atlantic is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Navy.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Navy is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Navy 30 · Florida Atlantic 38
- Pregame OV Line
- Navy -5.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Navy -4
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida Atlantic by 8
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNavy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNavy -6Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Navy -6Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Navy 67.3%Florida Atlantic 32.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Navy -4
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