Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNavy at Florida Atlantic
Week 2 · Sep 12FAU Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNavy -52-book consensus · updated Sep 9
Navy -52-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after losing its previous lined game by 45 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Florida Atlantic is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Navy.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Navy is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 666 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Navy 30 · Florida Atlantic 38
- Pregame OV Line
- Navy -5.5
- Final recorded market
- Navy -5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Florida Atlantic by 8
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNavy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Navy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNavy -6Based on 2 books
Navy -6Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Navy 67.3%Florida Atlantic 32.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Navy -5
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