Texas Southern at Florida Atlantic

Week 5 · Oct 3FAU Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
Texas SouthernFCS
@
Florida Atlantic5–3-9.7 vs. avg · #100

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineFlorida Atlantic -30.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusFlorida Atlantic -44.58-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineFlorida Atlantic -30.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward Texas SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineFlorida Atlantic -28.5Unexplained Gap~16 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineFlorida Atlantic -30.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward Texas SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Florida Atlantic -28.5Opening Market ConsensusFlorida Atlantic -44.5Unexplained at open~16 pts toward Florida AtlanticSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Florida Atlantic -28.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusFlorida Atlantic -44.5Unexplained gap~16 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps Texas Southern has extra rest~2 pts toward Texas Southern

Texas Southern has extra rest

~2 pts toward Texas Southern

Texas Southern has 7.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Texas Southern; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Texas Southern 10 · Florida Atlantic 66
Pregame OV Line
Florida Atlantic -30.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Florida Atlantic -44.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Florida Atlantic -28.5
Actual margin
Florida Atlantic by 56

Observed 9h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Texas Southern 1.6%Florida Atlantic 98.4%

Compare Teams

Texas SouthernVSFlorida Atlantic

Model View

Overall Rating—-9.7 · #100
Offense Rating—-3.2
Defense Rating—-6.5

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.16
Offense Success Rate—40.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.22
Defense Success Rate Allowed—43.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—84th