Florida Atlantic at Army

Week 7 · Oct 17Michie Stadium · West Point, NY

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArmy -4Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArmy -210-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArmy -4Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArmy -2.5Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArmy -4Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Army -2.5Opening Market ConsensusArmy -2.5Unexplained at open< 0.5 pts toward ArmySince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Army -2.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArmy -2Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps Florida Atlantic has extra rest~1.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic has extra rest

~1.5 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic has 6.8 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.7 points toward Florida Atlantic; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Army enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Florida Atlantic enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Florida Atlantic enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Florida Atlantic has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Florida Atlantic has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Army.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with Army by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Florida Atlantic 24 · Army 56
Pregame OV Line
Army -4
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Army -2
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Army -2.5
Actual margin
Army by 32

Observed 2h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Florida Atlantic 38.4%Army 61.6%

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Compare Teams

Florida AtlanticVSArmy

Model View

Overall Rating-9.7 · #100-2.6 · #79
Offense Rating-3.2+0.2
Defense Rating-6.5-2.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.19
Offense Success Rate40.3%42.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.220.18
Defense Success Rate Allowed43.7%44.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.17.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank84th90th