UTSA has extra rest
~1.5 pts toward UTSAUTSA has 5.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.3 points toward UTSA; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyUTSA at Florida Atlantic
Week 10 · Nov 5FAU Stadium · Boca Raton, FL
Matchup View
Opening Line
UTSA -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusUTSA -711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
UTSA -711-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -9→Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward UTSA→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUTSA -10.5Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -9Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward UTSAOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UTSA -10.5Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -7Unexplained at open~3.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)UTSA -10.5Current Market ConsensusUTSA -7Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticExplore similar gaps UTSA has extra rest~1.5 pts toward UTSA
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Florida Atlantic enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Florida Atlantic is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with UTSA.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Florida Atlantic lost the most recent meeting with UTSA by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
UTSA enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
UTSA enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
UTSA has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
UTSA is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-total favorite Inconclusive
UTSA is favored in a game with a consensus total of 72.2.
Studied in 717 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UTSA ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
UTSA faces materially stronger North Texas in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
UTSA is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger North Texas.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineUTSA -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -7Earliest observed 11-book consensus
UTSA -7Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -9→Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward UTSA→OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineUTSA -10.5Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticOnVarsity Opening LineUTSA -9Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward UTSAOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)UTSA -10.5Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -7Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward Florida AtlanticUTSA has extra rest~1.5 pts toward UTSA
UTSA has extra rest
~1.5 pts toward UTSAUTSA has 5.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.3 points toward UTSA; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.
See the full studyCurrent Win Probability
UTSA 75.9%Florida Atlantic 24.1%
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Market consensus · UTSA -7
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