Close-win regression Developing estimate
East Carolina enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySouth Florida at East Carolina
Week 10 · Nov 6Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC
Matchup View
Opening Line
South Florida -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market Consensus
East Carolina -1.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
East Carolina -1.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward East CarolinaExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
East Carolina ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
South Florida lost the most recent meeting with East Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
South Florida lost the most recent meeting with East Carolina by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
South Florida is the underdog in a matchup played at least 5 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Florida faces materially stronger Memphis in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineSouth Florida -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusEast Carolina -1.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
East Carolina -1.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
South Florida 54.4%East Carolina 45.6%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · East Carolina -1.5
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