Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
South Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUAB at South Florida
Week 9 · Oct 31Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Florida -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Florida -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
South Florida -7.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward UABExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
South Florida enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
South Florida ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
UAB was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UAB lost the most recent meeting with South Florida.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
UAB lost the most recent meeting with South Florida by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UAB 10 · South Florida 30
- Pregame OV Line
- South Florida -11
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- South Florida -7.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- South Florida by 20
Observed 6h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Florida -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Florida -11Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Florida -7.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
South Florida -7.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UAB 20.0%South Florida 80.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · South Florida -7.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 31.