Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Tulane was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUTSA at Tulane
Week 8 · Oct 24Yulman Stadium · New Orleans, LA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
UTSA -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusUTSA -311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
UTSA -311-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward UTSAExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Tulane is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Tulane lost the most recent meeting with UTSA.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Tulane lost the most recent meeting with UTSA by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
UTSA enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
UTSA has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
UTSA is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UTSA ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UTSA 42 · Tulane 19
- Pregame OV Line
- UTSA -1.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- UTSA -3
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- UTSA by 23
Observed 5h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUTSA -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UTSA -1.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUTSA -1.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
UTSA -1.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UTSA 54.5%Tulane 45.5%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · UTSA -3
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