Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
App State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCharlotte at App State
Week 3 · Sep 19Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
Matchup View
Opening Line
App State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
App State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusApp State -182-book consensus · updated Sep 16
App State -182-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward App StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
App State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
App State is favored by 17.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
App State faces materially stronger NC State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
App State is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger NC State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Charlotte enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Charlotte enters after losing its previous lined game by 32 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Charlotte is a 17.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Charlotte lost the most recent meeting with App State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Charlotte lost the most recent meeting with App State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineApp State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
App State -15Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusApp State -20Based on 2 books
App State -20Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Charlotte 12.1%App State 87.9%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · App State -18
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