Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUAB at Louisiana
Week 3 · Sep 19Cajun Field · Lafayette, LA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Louisiana -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusLouisiana -79-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 7:45 PM EDT
Louisiana -79-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 7:45 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward UABExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana enters after losing its previous lined game by 19 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Louisiana is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
UAB enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UAB lost the most recent meeting with Louisiana.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
UAB lost the most recent meeting with Louisiana by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UAB 14 · Louisiana 21
- Pregame OV Line
- Louisiana -8.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Louisiana -7
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Louisiana by 7
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineLouisiana -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Louisiana -8.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -7.5Earliest observed 9-book consensus
Louisiana -7.5Earliest observed 9-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UAB 25.4%Louisiana 74.6%
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Market consensus · Louisiana -7
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