South Alabama at Louisiana

Week 10 · Nov 7Cajun Field · Lafayette, LA
South Alabama4–4-10.6 vs. avg · #102
@
Louisiana5–3-5.4 vs. avg · #85

Matchup View

Opening LineLouisiana -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusLouisiana -8.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -8Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward LouisianaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana -9Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward South AlabamaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana -8Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward LouisianaOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana -9Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana -8.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward South AlabamaSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisiana -9Current Market ConsensusLouisiana -8.5Unexplained gap~0.5 pts toward South AlabamaExplore similar gaps Louisiana has extra rest~1 pt toward Louisiana

Louisiana has extra rest

~1 pt toward Louisiana

Louisiana has 6.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward Louisiana; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

South Alabama enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

South Alabama enters after losing its previous lined game by 15 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

South Alabama enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

South Alabama lost the most recent meeting with Louisiana.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

South Alabama is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Current Win Probability
South Alabama 27.5%Louisiana 72.5%

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Compare Teams

South AlabamaVSLouisiana

Model View

Overall Rating-10.6 · #102-5.4 · #85
Offense Rating-3.2-1.7
Defense Rating-7.4-3.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.160.11
Offense Success Rate41.8%38.5%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.240.20
Defense Success Rate Allowed43.3%46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total5.77.4
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank109th121st