Home-underdog value Inconclusive
Southern Miss is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyJames Madison at Southern Miss
Week 10 · Nov 5M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS
Matchup View
Opening Line
James Madison -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
James Madison -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market ConsensusJames Madison -14.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
James Madison -14.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Southern MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss is a 14.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Southern Miss lost the most recent meeting with James Madison.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Southern Miss lost the most recent meeting with James Madison by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
James Madison enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
James Madison was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
James Madison enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
James Madison enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
James Madison is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
James Madison is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
James Madison is favored by 14.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
James Madison ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
James Madison is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
James Madison faces materially stronger UConn in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
James Madison is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger UConn.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineJames Madison -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
James Madison -16.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusJames Madison -14.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
James Madison -14.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
James Madison 89.7%Southern Miss 10.3%
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Market consensus · James Madison -14.5
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