Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUConn at Southern Miss
Week 3 · Sep 19M. M. Roberts Stadium · Hattiesburg, MS
Matchup View
Opening Line
UConn -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UConn -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusUConn -32-book consensus · updated Sep 16
UConn -32-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Southern MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss enters after losing its previous lined game by 35 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Southern Miss is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
UConn enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
UConn enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
UConn is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
UConn is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
UConn ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineUConn -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UConn -3.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusUConn -3Based on 2 books
UConn -3Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
UConn 61.3%Southern Miss 38.7%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · UConn -3
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