Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studySouthern Miss at UL Monroe
Week 9 · Oct 31Malone Stadium · Monroe, LA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
UL Monroe -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UL Monroe -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Southern Miss -3.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Southern Miss -3.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Southern MissExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
UL Monroe enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
UL Monroe is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UL Monroe lost the most recent meeting with Southern Miss.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
UL Monroe lost the most recent meeting with Southern Miss by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
UL Monroe is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Southern Miss enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Southern Miss is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Southern Miss faces materially stronger James Madison in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Southern Miss 35 · UL Monroe 21
- Pregame OV Line
- UL Monroe -0.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Southern Miss -3.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Southern Miss by 14
Observed 9h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineUL Monroe -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
UL Monroe -0.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouthern Miss -3Earliest observed 8-book consensus
Southern Miss -3Earliest observed 8-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Southern Miss 47.8%UL Monroe 52.2%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Southern Miss -3.5
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