Army at Louisiana Tech

Week 5 · Oct 3Joe Aillet Stadium · Ruston, LA
Army5–3-2.6 vs. avg · #79
@
Louisiana Tech6–2-2.4 vs. avg · #77

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineArmy -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArmy -1.510-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArmy -5.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Louisiana TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArmy -4.5Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArmy -5.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Louisiana TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Army -4.5Opening Market ConsensusArmy -2Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward Louisiana TechSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Army -4.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusArmy -1.5Unexplained gap~3 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps Louisiana Tech has extra rest~1 pt toward Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech has extra rest

~1 pt toward Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech has 5.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.9 points toward Louisiana Tech; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana Tech enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Louisiana Tech enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Louisiana Tech enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

Louisiana Tech is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Army enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Army is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Army 29 · Louisiana Tech 31
Pregame OV Line
Army -5.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Army -1.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Army -4.5
Actual margin
Louisiana Tech by 2

Observed 11h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Army 66.0%Louisiana Tech 34.0%

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Compare Teams

ArmyVSLouisiana Tech

Model View

Overall Rating-2.6 · #79-2.4 · #77
Offense Rating+0.2-2.7
Defense Rating-2.8+0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.190.14
Offense Success Rate42.2%40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.180.05
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.8%37.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.76.0
Playoff Odds<0.01%0.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank90th91st