Northwestern State at Louisiana Tech

Week 1 · Sep 5Joe Aillet Stadium · Ruston, LA
Northwestern StateFCS
@
Louisiana Tech6–2-2.4 vs. avg · #77

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineLouisiana Tech -35Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -44.58-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 7:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -35Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward Louisiana TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana Tech -36.5Unexplained Gap~8 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -35Factor adjustment (Open)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana Tech -35Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -43Unexplained at open~8 pts toward Louisiana TechSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward Louisiana TechOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisiana Tech -36.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -44.5Unexplained gap~8 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1.5 pts toward Louisiana TechAt open < 0.5 pts toward Louisiana TechIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Louisiana Tech

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1.5 pts toward Louisiana TechAt open < 0.5 pts toward Louisiana TechIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Louisiana Tech
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Louisiana Tech's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 75%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.7 points toward Louisiana Tech (average-estimate range 0.9–2.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Northwestern State 6 · Louisiana Tech 80
Pregame OV Line
Louisiana Tech -35
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Louisiana Tech -44.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Louisiana Tech -36.5
Actual margin
Louisiana Tech by 74

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Northwestern State 0.5%Louisiana Tech 99.5%

Compare Teams

Northwestern StateVSLouisiana Tech

Model View

Overall Rating—-2.4 · #77
Offense Rating—-2.7
Defense Rating—+0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.14
Offense Success Rate—40.4%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.05
Defense Success Rate Allowed—37.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.0
Playoff Odds—0.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—91st