Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe

Week 7 · Oct 17Malone Stadium · Monroe, LA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineLouisiana Tech -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -15.510-book consensus · observed Oct 17, 9:02 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -12.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward UL MonroeOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineLouisiana Tech -11.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineLouisiana Tech -12.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward UL MonroeOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Louisiana Tech -11.5Opening Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -14.5Unexplained at open~3 pts toward Louisiana TechSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Louisiana Tech -11.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusLouisiana Tech -15.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward Louisiana TechExplore similar gaps UL Monroe has extra rest~1 pt toward UL Monroe

UL Monroe has extra rest

~1 pt toward UL Monroe

UL Monroe has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.1 points toward UL Monroe; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after losing its previous lined game by 17 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

UL Monroe is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

UL Monroe is a 15.2-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Louisiana Tech is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Louisiana Tech is favored by 15.2 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Louisiana Tech 24 · UL Monroe 0
Pregame OV Line
Louisiana Tech -12.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Louisiana Tech -15.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Louisiana Tech -11.5
Actual margin
Louisiana Tech by 24

Observed 10h 57m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Louisiana Tech 83.4%UL Monroe 16.6%

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Compare Teams

Louisiana TechVSUL Monroe

Model View

Overall Rating-2.4 · #77-22.8 · #135
Offense Rating-2.7-12.0
Defense Rating+0.3-10.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.140.08
Offense Success Rate40.4%37.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.050.19
Defense Success Rate Allowed37.1%40.7%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.03.6
Playoff Odds0.8%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank91st107th