Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyUL Monroe at South Alabama
Week 5 · Oct 3Hancock Whitney Stadium · Mobile, AL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
South Alabama -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Alabama -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSouth Alabama -1410-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
South Alabama -1410-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward UL MonroeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama enters after losing its previous lined game by 24 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
South Alabama is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
South Alabama is favored by 14.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
South Alabama faces materially stronger Arkansas State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
South Alabama is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Arkansas State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after three losses Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
UL Monroe is a 14.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
UL Monroe lost the most recent meeting with South Alabama.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
UL Monroe is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?UL Monroe 35 · South Alabama 52
- Pregame OV Line
- South Alabama -14.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- South Alabama -14
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- South Alabama by 17
Observed 10h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineSouth Alabama -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
South Alabama -14.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusSouth Alabama -14Earliest observed 10-book consensus
South Alabama -14Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
UL Monroe 13.1%South Alabama 86.9%
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Market consensus · South Alabama -14
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