App State at Georgia Southern

Week 9 · Oct 31Allen E. Paulson Stadium · Statesboro, GA

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineGeorgia Southern -6Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -5.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Southern -6Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Georgia SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineGeorgia Southern -7Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward App StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineGeorgia Southern -6Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Georgia SouthernOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Georgia Southern -7Opening Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -4.5Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward App StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Georgia Southern -7Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusGeorgia Southern -5.5Unexplained gap~1.5 pts toward App StateExplore similar gaps Georgia Southern has extra rest~1 pt toward Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern has extra rest

~1 pt toward Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern has 5.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.8 points toward Georgia Southern; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Close-win regression Developing estimate

Georgia Southern enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Georgia Southern has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence

App State was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Close-win regression Developing estimate

App State enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

App State lost the most recent meeting with Georgia Southern.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Rivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate

App State is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.

Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?App State 3 · Georgia Southern 19
Pregame OV Line
Georgia Southern -6
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Georgia Southern -5.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Georgia Southern -7
Actual margin
Georgia Southern by 16

Observed 12h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
App State 32.9%Georgia Southern 67.1%

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Compare Teams

App StateVSGeorgia Southern

Model View

Overall Rating-11.1 · #105-7.1 · #94
Offense Rating-6.1-1.8
Defense Rating-5.1-5.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.100.20
Offense Success Rate40.9%44.1%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.180.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.8%48.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.15.0
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank125th89th