Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Coastal Carolina was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyApp State at Coastal Carolina
Week 7 · Oct 16Brooks Stadium (SC) · Conway, SC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
App State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
App State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusApp State -1.510-book consensus · observed Oct 16, 9:57 AM EDT
App State -1.510-book consensus · observed Oct 16, 9:57 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward App StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Coastal Carolina enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Coastal Carolina is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Coastal Carolina is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
App State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
App State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
App State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
App State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
App State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
App State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
App State lost the most recent meeting with Coastal Carolina.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
App State faces materially stronger James Madison in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?App State 35 · Coastal Carolina 32
- Pregame OV Line
- App State -1
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- App State -1.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- App State by 3
Observed 10h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineApp State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
App State -1Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusApp State -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensus
App State -1.5Earliest observed 2-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
App State 52.6%Coastal Carolina 47.4%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · App State -1.5
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