Maine at App State

Week 1 · Sep 5Kidd Brewer Stadium · Boone, NC
MaineFCS
@
App State5–3-11.1 vs. avg · #105

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineApp State -21.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusApp State -20.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 3:15 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineApp State -21.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward App StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineApp State -24Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward MaineExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineApp State -21.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward App StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)App State -22.5Opening Market ConsensusApp State -18.5Unexplained at open~4 pts toward MaineSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward App StateOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)App State -24Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusApp State -20.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward MaineExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward App StateAt open ~1 pt toward App StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward App State

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward App StateAt open ~1 pt toward App StateIn-week ~1.5 pts toward App State
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put App State's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 47%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward App State (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Maine 3 · App State 55
Pregame OV Line
App State -21.5
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
App State -20.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
App State -24
Actual margin
App State by 52

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Maine 5.8%App State 94.2%

Compare Teams

MaineVSApp State

Model View

Overall Rating—-11.1 · #105
Offense Rating—-6.1
Defense Rating—-5.1

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.10
Offense Success Rate—40.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.18
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—6.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—125th