Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
East Carolina enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,441 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyApp State at East Carolina
Week 2 · Sep 12Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · Greenville, NC
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked Opening Line
East Carolina -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
East Carolina -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusEast Carolina -72-book consensus · updated Sep 9
East Carolina -72-book consensus · updated Sep 9Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward App StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
East Carolina enters after losing its previous lined game by 38 points.
Studied in 681 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
East Carolina is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 535 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
East Carolina ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
East Carolina lost the most recent meeting with App State.
Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?App State 27 · East Carolina 24
- Pregame OV Line
- East Carolina -8
- Final recorded market
- East Carolina -7
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- App State by 3
This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineEast Carolina -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
East Carolina -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusEast Carolina -10Based on 2 books
East Carolina -10Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
App State 26.3%East Carolina 73.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · East Carolina -7
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