Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
NC State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDuke at NC State
Week 10 · Nov 7Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC
Matchup View
Opening Line
Duke -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Duke -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusDuke -4.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Duke -4.511-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM ESTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward DukeExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
NC State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
NC State is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
NC State lost the most recent meeting with Duke.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Duke enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Duke enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Duke is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Duke ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Duke faces materially stronger Miami in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineDuke -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Duke -2.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusDuke -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Duke -4.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Duke 57.7%NC State 42.3%
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Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Duke -4.5
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