Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
North Carolina was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNC State at North Carolina
Week 13 · Nov 28Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC
Matchup View
Opening Line
North Carolina 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Carolina 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Current Market Consensus
NC State -1.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16
NC State -1.51-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1.5 pts toward NC StateExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
North Carolina enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
North Carolina is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
North Carolina lost the most recent meeting with NC State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
North Carolina lost the most recent meeting with NC State by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
North Carolina is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
NC State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
NC State enters after losing its previous lined game by 26 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
NC State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
NC State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineNorth Carolina 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
North Carolina 0Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNC State -1.5Based on 1 book
NC State -1.5Based on 1 bookWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
NC State 49.3%North Carolina 50.7%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · NC State -1.5
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