Syracuse at UConn

Week 5 · Oct 3Pratt & Whitney Stadium · East Hartford, CT

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineSyracuse -8Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSyracuse -6.510-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -8Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSyracuse -10Unexplained Gap~3.5 pts toward UConnExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -8Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Syracuse -10Opening Market ConsensusSyracuse -6.5Unexplained at open~4 pts toward UConnSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Syracuse -10Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusSyracuse -6.5Unexplained gap~3.5 pts toward UConnExplore similar gaps Syracuse has extra rest~2 pts toward Syracuse

Syracuse has extra rest

~2 pts toward Syracuse

Syracuse has 7.1 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Syracuse; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

UConn enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

UConn enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Home-underdog value Inconclusive

UConn is the home underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

UConn ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

UConn lost the most recent meeting with Syracuse.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Syracuse enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence

Syracuse enters after losing its previous lined game by 14 points.

Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Syracuse enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Syracuse is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Road-favorite strength Inconclusive

Syracuse is the road favorite in the current market consensus.

Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Look-ahead game Contradictory evidence

Syracuse faces materially stronger Virginia in its next scheduled game.

Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Syracuse 42 · UConn 41
Pregame OV Line
Syracuse -8
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Syracuse -6.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Syracuse -10
Actual margin
Syracuse by 1

Observed 3h 32m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Syracuse 73.7%UConn 26.3%

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Compare Teams

SyracuseVSUConn

Model View

Overall Rating-0.2 · #73-6.9 · #92
Offense Rating+0.0-2.2
Defense Rating-0.3-4.8

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.050.31
Offense Success Rate39.0%45.9%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.270.21
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.9%46.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.55.3
Playoff Odds<0.01%<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank53rd101st