New Hampshire at Syracuse

Week 1 · Sep 5JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse, NY
New HampshireFCS
@
Syracuse4–4-0.2 vs. avg · #73

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineSyracuse -26Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSyracuse -35.59-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 11:45 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -26Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSyracuse -28.5Unexplained Gap~7 pts toward SyracuseExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -26Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Syracuse -27.5Opening Market ConsensusSyracuse -33.5Unexplained at open~6 pts toward SyracuseSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Syracuse -28.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusSyracuse -35.5Unexplained gap~7 pts toward SyracuseExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward SyracuseAt open ~1.5 pts toward SyracuseIn-week ~1 pt toward Syracuse

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward SyracuseAt open ~1.5 pts toward SyracuseIn-week ~1 pt toward Syracuse
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Syracuse's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 58%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Syracuse (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Hampshire 3 · Syracuse 66
Pregame OV Line
Syracuse -26
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Syracuse -35.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Syracuse -28.5
Actual margin
Syracuse by 63

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Hampshire 3.0%Syracuse 97.0%

Compare Teams

New HampshireVSSyracuse

Model View

Overall Rating—-0.2 · #73
Offense Rating—+0.0
Defense Rating—-0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.05
Offense Success Rate—39.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.5
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—53rd