New Hampshire at Syracuse

Week 1 · Sep 5JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse, NY
New HampshireFCS
@
Syracuse1–1+0.9 vs. avg · #66

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineSyracuse -26Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusSyracuse -32.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -26Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineSyracuse -28.5Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward SyracuseExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineSyracuse -26Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Syracuse -27.5Opening Market ConsensusSyracuse -33.5Unexplained at open~6 pts toward SyracuseSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward SyracuseOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Syracuse -28.5Current Market ConsensusSyracuse -32.5Unexplained gap~4 pts toward SyracuseExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward SyracuseAt open ~1.5 pts toward SyracuseIn-week ~1 pt toward Syracuse

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward SyracuseAt open ~1.5 pts toward SyracuseIn-week ~1 pt toward Syracuse
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Syracuse's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 58%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Syracuse (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?New Hampshire 3 · Syracuse 66
Pregame OV Line
Syracuse -26
Final recorded market
Syracuse -32.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Syracuse -28.5
Actual margin
Syracuse by 63

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
New Hampshire 3.0%Syracuse 97.0%

Compare Teams

New HampshireVSSyracuse

Model View

Overall Rating—+0.9 · #66
Offense Rating—+0.6
Defense Rating—+0.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.05
Offense Success Rate—39.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.9%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.5
Playoff Odds—0.1%
Strength of Schedule Rank—50th