East Tennessee State at North Carolina

Week 2 · Sep 12Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorth Carolina -28Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorth Carolina -35.59-book consensus · observed Sep 12, 11:45 AM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~7.5 pts toward North CarolinaExplore similar gaps
Completed gameWhat happened?East Tennessee State 3 · North Carolina 35
Pregame OV Line
North Carolina -28
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
North Carolina -35.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
North Carolina by 32

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
East Tennessee State 3.1%North Carolina 96.9%

Compare Teams

East Tennessee StateVSNorth Carolina

Model View

Overall Rating—+6.1 · #45
Offense Rating—+1.3
Defense Rating—+4.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.06
Offense Success Rate—38.8%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.15
Defense Success Rate Allowed—41.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—4.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—32nd