Colorado at Oklahoma State

Week 8 · Oct 24Boone Pickens Stadium · Stillwater, OK

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineOklahoma State -13Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusOklahoma State -13.511-book consensus · observed Oct 24, 2:12 PM EDT
Why the market may differNo Factors

No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.

Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward Oklahoma StateExplore similar gaps
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Oklahoma State has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Favorite off a loss Contradictory evidence

Oklahoma State is favored after losing its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Oklahoma State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Oklahoma State lost the most recent meeting with Colorado.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Oklahoma State lost the most recent meeting with Colorado by at least 14 points.

Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after three losses Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after three consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,169 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Colorado enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Colorado 24 · Oklahoma State 57
Pregame OV Line
Oklahoma State -13
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Oklahoma State -13.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
No quantified Factors
Actual margin
Oklahoma State by 33

Observed 4h 47m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Colorado 16.1%Oklahoma State 83.9%

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Compare Teams

ColoradoVSOklahoma State

Model View

Overall Rating+0.6 · #70+12.0 · #34
Offense Rating-0.7+4.0
Defense Rating+1.3+7.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.08-0.01
Offense Success Rate34.9%34.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.190.26
Defense Success Rate Allowed42.3%44.2%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total4.06.2
Playoff Odds<0.01%3.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank25th51st