Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Northwestern enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPenn State at Northwestern
Week 5 · Oct 2Ryan Field · Evanston, IL
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Penn State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusPenn State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 1, 9:06 PM EDT
Penn State -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 1, 9:06 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward NorthwesternExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Northwestern enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Northwestern is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Penn State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Penn State was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Penn State enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Penn State is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Penn State is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Penn State begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Penn State lost the most recent meeting with Northwestern.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Penn State 13 · Northwestern 34
- Pregame OV Line
- Penn State -6.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Penn State -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Northwestern by 21
Observed 22h 53m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LinePenn State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Penn State -6.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusPenn State -4Earliest observed 3-book consensus
Penn State -4Earliest observed 3-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Penn State 70.2%Northwestern 29.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Penn State -2.5
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