South Dakota State at Northwestern

Week 1 · Sep 5Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL
South Dakota StateFCS
@
Northwestern6–2+13.8 vs. avg · #27

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineNorthwestern -23Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorthwestern -149-book consensus · observed Sep 5, 7:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNorthwestern -23Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward NorthwesternOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNorthwestern -25.5Unexplained Gap~11.5 pts toward South Dakota StateExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNorthwestern -23Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward NorthwesternOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Northwestern -24Opening Market ConsensusNorthwestern -12.5Unexplained at open~11.5 pts toward South Dakota StateSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward NorthwesternOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Northwestern -25.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusNorthwestern -14Unexplained gap~11.5 pts toward South Dakota StateExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward NorthwesternAt open ~1 pt toward NorthwesternIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Northwestern

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward NorthwesternAt open ~1 pt toward NorthwesternIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Northwestern
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Northwestern's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 51%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.5 points toward Northwestern (average-estimate range 1.8–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?South Dakota State 18 · Northwestern 34
Pregame OV Line
Northwestern -23
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Northwestern -14
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Northwestern -25.5
Actual margin
Northwestern by 16

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
South Dakota State 4.7%Northwestern 95.3%

Compare Teams

South Dakota StateVSNorthwestern

Model View

Overall Rating—+13.8 · #27
Offense Rating—+7.8
Defense Rating—+5.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.15
Offense Success Rate—43.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.17
Defense Success Rate Allowed—45.1%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.4
Playoff Odds—6.8%
Strength of Schedule Rank—30th