Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Rutgers enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan at Rutgers
Week 9 · Oct 31SHI Stadium · Piscataway, NJ
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Michigan -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMichigan -1611-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Michigan -1611-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Rutgers enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Rutgers is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Rutgers is a 15.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Rutgers lost the most recent meeting with Michigan.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Rutgers lost the most recent meeting with Michigan by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Rutgers is the underdog in a matchup played at least 6 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Michigan enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Michigan enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Michigan is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Michigan is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Michigan is favored by 15.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Michigan begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Michigan is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Michigan 28 · Rutgers 21
- Pregame OV Line
- Michigan -14
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Michigan -16
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Michigan by 7
Observed 6h 55m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMichigan -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Michigan -14Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMichigan -14Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Michigan -14Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Michigan 85.8%Rutgers 14.2%
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Straight-up winner
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Market consensus · Michigan -16
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