Merrimack at Wake Forest

Week 10 · Nov 7Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC
MerrimackFCS
@
Wake Forest7–1+15.2 vs. avg · #19

Matchup View

Opening LineWake Forest -47.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusWake Forest -483-book consensus · observed Nov 2, 12:33 PM EST
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -47.5Factor Adjustments~2 pts toward MerrimackOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWake Forest -45.5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward Wake ForestExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -47.5Factor adjustment (Open)~2 pts toward MerrimackOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Wake Forest -45.5Opening Market ConsensusWake Forest -48Unexplained at open~2.5 pts toward Wake ForestSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Wake Forest -45.5Current Market ConsensusWake Forest -48Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward Wake ForestExplore similar gaps Merrimack has extra rest~2 pts toward Merrimack

Merrimack has extra rest

~2 pts toward Merrimack

Merrimack has 7.0 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 1.8 points toward Merrimack; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

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Current Win Probability
Merrimack <0.01%Wake Forest >99.9%

Compare Teams

MerrimackVSWake Forest

Model View

Overall Rating—+15.2 · #19
Offense Rating—+5.3
Defense Rating—+9.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.16
Offense Success Rate—38.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.04
Defense Success Rate Allowed—35.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—5.7
Playoff Odds—55.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank—71st