Virginia at Wake Forest

Week 9 · Oct 31Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LineWake Forest -12.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWake Forest -12.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -12.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward Wake ForestOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineWake Forest -13.5Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward VirginiaExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineWake Forest -12.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward Wake ForestOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Wake Forest -13.5Opening Market ConsensusWake Forest -14Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Wake ForestSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Wake Forest -13.5Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWake Forest -12.5Unexplained gap~1 pt toward VirginiaExplore similar gaps Wake Forest has extra rest~1 pt toward Wake Forest

Wake Forest has extra rest

~1 pt toward Wake Forest

Wake Forest has 5.9 extra days of rest. In comparable games, the market historically shaded about 0.9 points toward Wake Forest; final-margin results did not show a reliable matching improvement.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence

Wake Forest enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate

Wake Forest enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.

Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Straight-up hot streak Developing estimate

Wake Forest has won at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Hot against-the-spread trend Developing estimate

Wake Forest has covered at least three consecutive lined games.

Studied in 951 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Wake Forest begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence

Virginia enters after a loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence

Virginia was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.

Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence

Virginia enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.

Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Resolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence

Virginia enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.

Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Virginia ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Defense travels Contradictory evidence

Virginia is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.

Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Virginia lost the most recent meeting with Wake Forest.

Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Virginia 7 · Wake Forest 51
Pregame OV Line
Wake Forest -12.5
Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
Wake Forest -12.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Wake Forest -13.5
Actual margin
Wake Forest by 44

Observed 10h 10m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Virginia 16.5%Wake Forest 83.5%

Make Your Picks

Open until scheduled kickoff

Who will win this game?

Straight-up winner

Your winner pick refines your personal ratings. Game location is accounted for; your spread pick records where you differ from the market.

Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 31.

Compare Teams

VirginiaVSWake Forest

Model View

Overall Rating+2.7 · #57+15.2 · #19
Offense Rating-0.4+5.3
Defense Rating+3.1+9.9

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.170.16
Offense Success Rate41.4%38.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.060.04
Defense Success Rate Allowed36.9%35.5%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total7.95.7
Playoff Odds<0.01%55.5%
Strength of Schedule Rank66th71st