Indiana State at Purdue

Week 1 · Sep 4Ross-Ade Stadium · West Lafayette, IN
Indiana StateFCS
@
Purdue3–5+5.3 vs. avg · #49

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked
Opening LinePurdue -30Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusPurdue -359-book consensus · observed Sep 4, 6:45 PM EDT
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LinePurdue -30Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward PurdueOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LinePurdue -32.5Unexplained Gap~2.5 pts toward PurdueExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LinePurdue -30Factor adjustment (Open)~1 pt toward PurdueOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Purdue -31Opening Market ConsensusPurdue -35Unexplained at open~4 pts toward PurdueSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward PurdueOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Purdue -32.5Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusPurdue -35Unexplained gap~2.5 pts toward PurdueExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward PurdueAt open ~1 pt toward PurdueIn-week ~1 pt toward Purdue

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward PurdueAt open ~1 pt toward PurdueIn-week ~1 pt toward Purdue
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Purdue's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 67%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.3 points toward Purdue (average-estimate range 1.5–3.5), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Indiana State 19 · Purdue 44
Pregame OV Line
Purdue -30
Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
Purdue -35
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Purdue -32.5
Actual margin
Purdue by 25

Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Indiana State 1.5%Purdue 98.5%

Compare Teams

Indiana StateVSPurdue

Model View

Overall Rating—+5.3 · #49
Offense Rating—+3.7
Defense Rating—+1.6

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.10
Offense Success Rate—42.0%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.27
Defense Success Rate Allowed—47.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.1
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—5th