Letdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State at Wisconsin
Week 5 · Oct 3Camp Randall Stadium · Madison, WI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Wisconsin -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wisconsin -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusWisconsin -911-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDT
Wisconsin -911-book consensus · observed Oct 3, 8:27 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Close-win regression Developing estimate
Wisconsin enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Wisconsin lost the most recent meeting with Michigan State.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Michigan State enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Michigan State enters after losing its previous lined game by 18 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Michigan State enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Michigan State 3 · Wisconsin 31
- Pregame OV Line
- Wisconsin -9
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Wisconsin -9
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Wisconsin by 28
Observed 4h 2m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWisconsin -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wisconsin -9Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWisconsin -10.5Earliest observed 3-book consensus
Wisconsin -10.5Earliest observed 3-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Michigan State 24.0%Wisconsin 76.0%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Wisconsin -9
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