Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyEastern Michigan at Wisconsin
Week 3 · Sep 19Camp Randall Stadium · Madison, WI
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Wisconsin -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wisconsin -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Kickoff-adjacent Market ConsensusWisconsin -23.510-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 12:15 PM EDT
Wisconsin -23.510-book consensus · observed Sep 19, 12:15 PM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Wisconsin is favored by 24.0 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin faces materially stronger Penn State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Wisconsin is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Penn State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan enters after losing its previous lined game by 28 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMust-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Eastern Michigan is a 24.0-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Eastern Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Wisconsin.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Eastern Michigan lost the most recent meeting with Wisconsin by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Eastern Michigan 10 · Wisconsin 54
- Pregame OV Line
- Wisconsin -23.5
- Kickoff-adjacent Market Consensus
- Wisconsin -23.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Wisconsin by 44
Observed 0h 14m before kickoff. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineWisconsin -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Wisconsin -23.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWisconsin -24Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Wisconsin -24Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Eastern Michigan 3.2%Wisconsin 96.8%
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Market consensus · Wisconsin -23.5
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