Wisconsin vs Notre Dame

Week 1 · Sep 6Neutral Site · Lambeau Field · Greenbay, WI

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineNotre Dame -17.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
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Current Market ConsensusNotre Dame -20.52-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineNotre Dame -17.5Factor Adjustments~1.5 pts toward WisconsinOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineNotre Dame -16Unexplained Gap~4.5 pts toward Notre DameExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineNotre Dame -17.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward WisconsinOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Notre Dame -16Opening Market ConsensusNotre Dame -16.5Unexplained at open~0.5 pts toward Notre DameSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)≈ Net zeroOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Notre Dame -16Current Market ConsensusNotre Dame -20.5Unexplained gap~4.5 pts toward Notre DameExplore similar gaps Neutral venue is in Wisconsin's home state~1.5 pts toward Wisconsin

Neutral venue is in Wisconsin's home state

~1.5 pts toward Wisconsin
Estimate revised after kickoff

This locked page preserves the estimate OnVarsity showed before kickoff. The study was revalidated afterward and contributes zero points to new matchups.

Lambeau Field is about 120 miles from Wisconsin's home stadium and 214 miles from Notre Dame's. That does not mean the crowd will favor Wisconsin, and the travel difference may be modest.

See the full study
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate

These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.

Lay it with a big favorite Developing estimate

Notre Dame is favored by 20.5 points in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Public bias toward greatness Developing estimate

Notre Dame begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.

Studied in 896 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate

Notre Dame ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.

Studied in 891 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Take the big underdog Contradictory evidence

Wisconsin is a 20.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.

Studied in 450 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge game Developing estimate

Wisconsin lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame.

Studied in 1,265 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study

Revenge after humiliation Developing estimate

Wisconsin lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame by at least 14 points.

Studied in 592 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study
Completed gameWhat happened?Wisconsin 13 · Notre Dame 41
Pregame OV Line
Notre Dame -17.5
Final recorded market
Notre Dame -20.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Notre Dame -16
Actual margin
Notre Dame by 28

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Wisconsin 10.3%Notre Dame 89.7%

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Compare Teams

WisconsinVSNotre Dame

Model View

Overall Rating+6.2 · #45+26.4 · #5
Offense Rating+1.3+13.7
Defense Rating+4.9+12.7

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play0.020.33
Offense Success Rate36.6%46.3%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed0.170.02
Defense Success Rate Allowed44.8%36.3%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total6.510.7
Playoff Odds0.9%93.2%
Strength of Schedule Rank44th66th