Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWisconsin at Iowa
Week 9 · Oct 31Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Iowa -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusIowa -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Iowa -2.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~0.5 pts toward WisconsinExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Iowa is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Iowa begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after an upset win Contradictory evidence
Wisconsin was an underdog and won its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,127 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Wisconsin begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Wisconsin lost the most recent meeting with Iowa.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Wisconsin lost the most recent meeting with Iowa by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Wisconsin is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Wisconsin 0 · Iowa 30
- Pregame OV Line
- Iowa -3
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Iowa -2.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Iowa by 30
Observed 6h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineIowa -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Iowa -3Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusIowa -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Iowa -3.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Wisconsin 40.9%Iowa 59.1%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Iowa -2.5
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