Letdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMichigan State at Notre Dame
Week 3 · Sep 19Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame, IN
Matchup View
Opening Line
Notre Dame -28Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Notre Dame -28Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusNotre Dame -302-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Notre Dame -302-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~2 pts toward Notre DameExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Momentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Notre Dame enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Notre Dame is favored by 29.8 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Notre Dame begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Notre Dame ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLetdown after a blowout win Contradictory evidence
Michigan State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyMomentum after a blowout win Developing estimate
Michigan State enters after winning its previous lined game by at least 21 points.
Studied in 1,819 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Michigan State is a 29.8-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Michigan State lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Michigan State lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineNotre Dame -28Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Notre Dame -28Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNotre Dame -30Based on 2 books
Notre Dame -30Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Michigan State 1.4%Notre Dame 98.6%
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Market consensus · Notre Dame -30
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