Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Navy enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyNotre Dame vs Navy
Week 9 · Oct 31Neutral Site · Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Notre Dame -30.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Notre Dame -30.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
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Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusNotre Dame -30.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Notre Dame -30.511-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Other conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Must-win after two losses Contradictory evidence
Navy enters after two consecutive losses in lined games.
Studied in 1,859 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Navy is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTake the big underdog Contradictory evidence
Navy is a 30.5-point underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge game Developing estimate
Navy lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame.
Studied in 3,848 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRevenge after humiliation Developing estimate
Navy lost the most recent meeting with Notre Dame by at least 14 points.
Studied in 1,910 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRivalry games favor the underdog Developing estimate
Navy is the underdog in a matchup played at least 8 times in the available prior-decade archive.
Studied in 1,849 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after an upset loss Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame was favored but lost its previous lined game outright.
Studied in 1,202 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Notre Dame is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLay it with a big favorite Developing estimate
Notre Dame is favored by 30.5 points in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,106 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyPublic bias toward greatness Developing estimate
Notre Dame begins the season in the top quartile of OV Ratings.
Studied in 1,692 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHigh-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Notre Dame ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Notre Dame faces materially stronger Miami in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Notre Dame is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Miami.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Notre Dame 35 · Navy 13
- Pregame OV Line
- Notre Dame -30.5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Notre Dame -30.5
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Notre Dame by 22
Observed 6h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineNotre Dame -30.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Notre Dame -30.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusNotre Dame -29.5Earliest observed 11-book consensus
Notre Dame -29.5Earliest observed 11-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Notre Dame 99.1%Navy 0.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Notre Dame -30.5
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