Houston Christian at Rice

Week 1 · Sep 5Rice Stadium · Houston, TX
Houston ChristianFCS
@
Rice1–1-14.8 vs. avg · #120

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineRice -28.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusRice -23.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineRice -28.5Factor Adjustments~2.5 pts toward RiceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineRice -31Unexplained Gap~7.5 pts toward Houston ChristianExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineRice -28.5Factor adjustment (Open)~1.5 pts toward RiceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Rice -30Opening Market ConsensusRice -23.5Unexplained at open~6.5 pts toward Houston ChristianSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1 pt toward RiceOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Rice -31Current Market ConsensusRice -23.5Unexplained gap~7.5 pts toward Houston ChristianExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~2.5 pts toward RiceAt open ~1.5 pts toward RiceIn-week ~1 pt toward Rice

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~2.5 pts toward RiceAt open ~1.5 pts toward RiceIn-week ~1 pt toward Rice
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Rice's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 64%. Historically, the market shaded about 2.4 points toward Rice (average-estimate range 1.7–3.7), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Houston Christian 3 · Rice 31
Pregame OV Line
Rice -28.5
Final recorded market
Rice -23.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Rice -31
Actual margin
Rice by 28

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Houston Christian 1.9%Rice 98.1%

Compare Teams

Houston ChristianVSRice

Model View

Overall Rating—-14.8 · #120
Offense Rating—-7.8
Defense Rating—-7.0

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.04
Offense Success Rate—35.6%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.24
Defense Success Rate Allowed—41.4%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—3.6
Playoff Odds—<0.01%
Strength of Schedule Rank—76th