Bounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Rice enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyWestern Michigan at Rice
Week 3 · Sep 19Rice Stadium · Houston, TX
Matchup View
Opening Line
Western Michigan -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Western Michigan -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusWestern Michigan -9.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16
Western Michigan -9.52-book consensus · updated Sep 16Why the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~4 pts toward Western MichiganExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
Bounce-back after a bad loss Contradictory evidence
Rice enters after losing its previous lined game by 52 points.
Studied in 1,930 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyHome-underdog value Inconclusive
Rice is the home underdog in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyBounce-back after a loss Contradictory evidence
Western Michigan enters after a loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 2,630 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyResolve after a close loss Contradictory evidence
Western Michigan enters after a one-score loss in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,582 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyFavorite off a loss Contradictory evidence
Western Michigan is favored after losing its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,220 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyRoad-favorite strength Inconclusive
Western Michigan is the road favorite in the current market consensus.
Studied in 1,402 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyDefense travels Contradictory evidence
Western Michigan is on the road after ranking in the top quartile of 2025 scoring defense.
Studied in 879 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyLook-ahead game Contradictory evidence
Western Michigan faces materially stronger Boise State in its next scheduled game.
Studied in 1,044 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyTrap game Inconclusive
Western Michigan is favored by at least seven points before facing materially stronger Boise State.
Studied in 838 eligible gamesOpen Ledger study Opening LineWestern Michigan -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Western Michigan -5.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusWestern Michigan -12Based on 2 books
Western Michigan -12Based on 2 booksWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Current Win Probability
Western Michigan 67.1%Rice 32.9%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Western Michigan -9.5
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Sep 19.