Close-win regression Developing estimate
Memphis enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyArmy at Memphis
Week 9 · Oct 31Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis, TN
Matchup View
Pregame view lockedThe OV Line and Factors remain frozen. The market comparison uses the completed-game record below.
Locked Opening Line
Memphis -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your View![]()
Make 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Last Observed Pregame Market ConsensusMemphis -611-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDT
Memphis -611-book consensus · observed Oct 31, 5:34 AM EDTWhy the market may differNo Factors
No Explanatory Factors were identified for this game.
Unexplained Gap~1 pt toward MemphisExplore similar gapsOther conditions we evaluatedNot included in the estimate
These conditions were relevant to this matchup, but their studies did not justify a separate Factor estimate. That does not mean they never matter: some may already be reflected in preseason information or the opening market, may overlap with another Factor, or may simply lack a reliable additional effect.
High-scoring offense tax Developing estimate
Memphis ranked in the top quartile of 2025 scoring offense.
Studied in 1,302 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyClose-win regression Developing estimate
Army enters after a one-score win in its previous lined game.
Studied in 1,658 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyStraight-up hot streak Developing estimate
Army has won at least three consecutive lined games.
Studied in 1,465 eligible gamesOpen Ledger studyCompleted gameWhat happened?Army 22 · Memphis 49
- Pregame OV Line
- Memphis -5
- Last Observed Pregame Market Consensus
- Memphis -6
- OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
- No quantified Factors
- Actual margin
- Memphis by 27
Observed 14h 25m before kickoff. Not a verified closing line. The OV Line and Factors retain their pregame values. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.
Opening LineMemphis -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Memphis -5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?Your Line at OpenNot capturedPersonal-rating history was not stored when this market opened
Opening Market ConsensusMemphis -6.5Earliest observed 10-book consensus
Memphis -6.5Earliest observed 10-book consensusWhy the opening market may differNo quantified opening Factors
No currently published Factor has a separate opening-market estimate for this game.
Pregame Win Probability
Army 35.2%Memphis 64.8%
Make Your Picks
Open until scheduled kickoffWho will win this game?
Straight-up winner
Who will cover the spread?
Market consensus · Memphis -6
Stored only in this browser — nothing is sent anywhere. Picks close at Oct 31.