Bryant at Army

Week 1 · Sep 5Michie Stadium · West Point, NY
BryantFCS
@
Army1–1-1.7 vs. avg · #76

Matchup View

Pregame view lockedThis preserves what the matchup looked like before kickoff.
Locked
Opening LineArmy -38.5Before any Factor adjustments This is the matchup estimate implied by the OV Ratings before any game-specific Factors. Why doesn’t OnVarsity adjust it automatically?
Your ViewMake 25 picks to unlockBased on your personal ratings
Current Market ConsensusArmy -36.51-book consensus · updated Aug 26
Why the market may differ1 FactorOnVarsity Opening LineArmy -38.5Factor Adjustments~1 pt toward ArmyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested LineArmy -39.5Unexplained Gap~3 pts toward BryantExplore similar gaps OnVarsity Opening LineArmy -38.5Factor adjustment (Open)~0.5 pts toward BryantOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Open)Army -38Opening Market ConsensusArmy -37Unexplained at open~1.5 pts toward BryantSince openFactor adjustment (In-Week)~1.5 pts toward ArmyOV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line (Current)Army -39.5Current Market ConsensusArmy -36.5Unexplained gap~3 pts toward BryantExplore similar gaps Lopsided game-flow uncertainty~1 pt toward ArmyAt open ~0.5 pts toward BryantIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Army

Lopsided game-flow uncertainty

~1 pt toward ArmyAt open ~0.5 pts toward BryantIn-week ~1.5 pts toward Army
Estimate is uncertain

Comparable games put Army's chance of winning by at least 28 at about 81%. Historically, the market shaded about 1.2 points toward Army (average-estimate range 0.3–2.3), but actual results were too noisy to treat that as a dependable OV Line adjustment.

See the full study
Completed gameWhat happened?Bryant 3 · Army 59
Pregame OV Line
Army -38.5
Final recorded market
Army -36.5
OV Factor-Adjusted Suggested Line
Army -39.5
Actual margin
Army by 56

This preserves the pregame comparison beside the result. One outcome does not prove that a Factor caused the market difference.

Pregame Win Probability
Bryant 0.2%Army 99.8%

Compare Teams

BryantVSArmy

Model View

Overall Rating—-1.7 · #76
Offense Rating—+0.6
Defense Rating—-2.3

2025 Performance

Offense PPA/Play—0.19
Offense Success Rate—42.2%
Defense PPA/Play Allowed—0.18
Defense Success Rate Allowed—44.8%

2026 Outlook

Market Win Total—7.7
Playoff Odds—2.7%
Strength of Schedule Rank—89th